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rogd-social-contagion [2026/01/25 19:47] – valahrogd-social-contagion [2026/01/25 20:24] (current) – [Being Trans Is Not a Social Contagion: A Comprehensive Evidence-Based Analysis] valah
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 ===== Overview ===== ===== Overview =====
  
-**"Transing away the gay"** is a widespread anti-trans claim asserting that healthcare systems, affirming adults, and society are systematically converting gay and lesbian youth into transgender identities to "erase" homosexuality. [(overview)] This article examines the claim's origins, logical structure, empirical basis, and rhetorical function in contemporary anti-trans discourse.+The **"social contagion" narrative** claims that transgender identities—particularly among youth—are spreading due to social influence, social media, and peer pressure rather than representing genuine identity development. This article examines the evidence behind this claim and demonstrates that it lacks scientific support while causing measurable harm to vulnerable youth.
  
-===== Defining the Claim =====+===== The Social Contagion Claims =====
  
-The phrase encompasses several related assertions:+Anti-trans activists advancing this narrative typically assert:
  
-  - That youth who would naturally grow up to be gay are instead being socially or medically transitioned +  - That a "transgender epidemic" is occurring among youth, particularly adolescent females 
-  - That gender-affirming care deliberately targets LGB youth as an alternative to allowing them to accept their sexuality +  - That social media, peer influence, and online communities are the primary drivers of youth identifying as transgender 
-  - That affirming trans identities represents a form of conversion therapy targeting sexual orientation +  - That Rapid-Onset Gender Dysphoria (ROGD) is a distinct phenomenon where adolescents suddenly and unexpectedly develop gender dysphoria 
-  - That removing a potential gay person from the LGB community through transition constitutes harm+  - That increased visibility and acceptance of transgender identities is causing youth to "become" transgender 
 +  - That high rates of transition in youth are evidence of a social trend rather than increased recognition of existing identities
  
-The phrase is explicitly modeled on the earlier slogan "pray the gay away," creating a linguistic parallel between religious conversion practices and gender-affirming medical care. [(defn)]+===== The Methodological Failures of ROGD =====
  
-===== The Core Fallacy: Confusing Independent Traits =====+The "Rapid-Onset Gender Dysphoria" (ROGD) hypothesis—the scientific foundation of social contagion claims—originated from a single study with severe methodological limitations that undermine its credibility.
  
-The fundamental error underpinning this claim is treating **gender identity and sexual orientation as a single, interchangeable trait**. They are not.+==== Study Design Problems ====
  
-==== What Research Shows ====+The original ROGD study recruited participants exclusively from anti-trans parental websites and online communities. [(rogd_flaws)] This sampling method introduces **selection bias of catastrophic proportions**: parents already convinced their children's transitions are problematic were overrepresented, while parents with positive experiences were systematically excluded.
  
-Sexual identity and sexual orientation are **independent biological and psychological components** of a person's overall identity. [(independence1)] [(independence2)] Some research suggests that a subset of gender-dysphoric children would grow up to be gay if untreated, yet this finding is neither universal nor without controversy. [(genderx)]+Additional methodological flaws include:
  
-Many people conflate these dimensions because of social stereotypes that enforce the assumption they should align. In reality:+  - Reliance on parent reports rather than direct assessment of youth 
 +  - No diagnostic criteria or clinical interviews 
 +  - Lack of comparison groups 
 +  - No longitudinal data to establish causality 
 +  - Conflation of age of disclosure (when parents learn) with age of onset (when dysphoria began)
  
-  - A trans man may be gay, straight, bisexual, or asexual—independent of his male gender identity +==== ROGD Is Not Recognized as a Diagnosis ====
-  - A trans woman's sexual orientation is distinct from her womanhood +
-  - A cisgender gay person's sexual orientation does not make them transgender +
-  - A cisgender trans-allied heterosexual may support trans rights without changing their orientation+
  
-The assumption that "most kids who experience gender incongruence, if left alone, would simply grow up to be gay" [(genderx)] misunderstands the relationship between these traits. Even if some gender-dysphoric children would have become gay adults without medical intervention, this does not establish that gender-affirming care constitutes "transing away the gay." [(independence3)]+Despite popularization in certain media and policy circles, **ROGD is not a formal diagnosis** recognized by:
  
-===== Empirical Evidence Against the Claim =====+  - The American Psychiatric Association (DSM-5) 
 +  - The World Health Organization (ICD-11) 
 +  - The American Psychological Association 
 +  - Major pediatric and medical organizations
  
-==== No Evidence of "Sudden" Identity Development ====+The hypothesis remains contested within the scientific community and is not supported by peer-reviewed literature to the degree claimed by its proponents. As one commentator aptly notes, this phenomenon is better termed **"Rapid Onset Parental Discovery" (ROPD)**—the moment when parents learn about their child's identity, not when the identity actually developed.
  
-If "transing away the gay" were occurring at scale, we would expect to see the LGB population declining as people were redirected into trans identities. More importantly, we would expect to see sudden onset of gender dysphoria in youth—yet the evidence shows the opposite.+===== What the Actual Evidence Shows =====
  
-A 2022 study published in the Journal of Pediatrics analyzed data from 10 Canadian gender clinics and found that **98.3% of young people seeking gender-affirming care had realized more than a year prior that they might be transgender**. [(sudden)] This directly contradicts the "rapid onset" narrative promoted by anti-trans activists.+==== Gender Identity Development Is Gradual, Not Sudden ====
  
-As Dr. Diane Ehrensaft, director of mental health at the University of California, San Francisco, Child and Adolescent Gender Center, explains: **"It is not rapid-onset gender dysphoria. It's rapid-onset parental discovery."** [(ehrensaft)] Many transgender youth conceal their identity for extended periods before coming out to parents, often out of fear of rejection or safety concerns.+Longitudinal research demonstrates that gender identity development occurs gradually over time, not suddenly. [(identity_gradual)] Youth who come out as transgender have typically:
  
-==== The "Desister" Misrepresentation ====+  - Spent **years privately questioning their gender identity** before any disclosure 
 +  - Engaged in identity exploration long before coming out to parents or peers 
 +  - Experienced consistent patterns of gender incongruence throughout childhood, which parents may have overlooked or reinterpreted in retrospect
  
-Anti-trans rhetoric sometimes cites longitudinal studies showing that some gender-dysphoric children do not transition in adulthood, arguing these children were prevented from becoming gay instead. [(misrep)]+The apparent "suddenness" reflects **when parents learn about the identity**, not when the identity developed. This time gap is critical evidence against the contagion hypothesis.
  
-This argument commits several errors:+==== Sex Ratios Contradict Contagion Theory ====
  
-  - It assumes all gender-dysphoric youth would become gay if given no intervention (unfounded) +A central claim of the contagion narrative is that increased identification of transgender males (assigned female at birth) represents a "trend" among teenage girls. However, the evidence tells a different story:
-  - It treats "not transitioning" as evidence of hidden sexual orientation rather than genuine lack of gender dysphoria +
-  - It ignores that some desisters are heterosexual or asexual +
-  - **Every trans person's experience of sexuality is their own**—some trans people discover their sexual orientation changes as they transition authentically, while others' orientations remain consistent+
  
-===== Addressing Sub-Claims =====+**Analysis of 2017 and 2019 Youth Risk Behavior Survey data across 16 states found:** [(sexratio)]
  
-==== "Gay people transition to escape homophobia" ====+  - In 2017: 2.4% of adolescents identified as transgender or gender diverse, with an assigned-male-at-birth (AMAB) to assigned-female-at-birth (AFAB) ratio of 1.5:1 
 +  - In 2019: 1.6% of adolescents identified as transgender or gender diverse, with an AMAB:AFAB ratio of 1.2:1
  
-While individual experiences vary, this claim overgeneralizes problematically. If youth were transitioning to escape LGB stigma, we would expect transgender youth to experience **less** bullying and harassment than their cisgender LGB peers. The data shows the opposite.+**In both years, transgender adolescents assigned male at birth outnumbered those assigned female at birth**, directly contradicting the social contagion hypothesis. Moreover, **the overall percentage of adolescents identifying as transgender actually decreased between 2017 and 2019**, which is incongruent with a social contagion hypothesis. [(sexratio)]
  
-A 2022 Pediatrics study found that transgender and gender-diverse youth experienced dramatically higher rates of bullying than cisgender sexual minority youth:+==== The Bullying Contradiction ====
  
-  - **45.4% of transgender youth** reported being bullied at school +Another claim within the social contagion narrative is that youth identify as transgender to escape stigma associated with being lesbian, gay, or bisexual. If this were true, we would expect transgender youth to experience less bullying than their cisgender LGB peers.
-  - **28.7% of cisgender LGB youth** reported being bullied at school +
-  - **16.6% of cisgender heterosexual youth** reported being bullied at school+
  
-[(bullying_data)]+The data shows the opposite:
  
-As Dr. Jack Turban, one of the study's authors, stated: "The idea that attempts to flee sexual minority stigma drive teenagers to come out as transgender is absurd, especially to those of us who provide treatment to [transgender and gender diverse] youth." [(turban)]+  - **Transgender and gender-diverse youth experienced significantly higher rates of bullying than cisgender sexual minority youth** [(sexratio)] 
 +  - Transgender youth report higher rates of suicidality, depression, and anxiety than cisgender peers 
 +  - These disparities exist **despite** greater visibility and acceptance in some communities
  
-===== Sex Ratios Contradict Contagion Theory =====+A genuine "social contagion" would not co-occur with pronounced social marginalization. The elevated mental health disparities reflect stigma and discrimination, not inherent features of being transgender.
  
-Some contagion proponents claim that increased identification of transgender males (assigned female at birth) represents a "trend" among teenage girls targeting a vulnerable population. However, actual epidemiological data contradicts this:+==== Increased Visibility ≠ Increased Existence ====
  
-A comprehensive 2022 study published in Pediatrics examined data from the CDC's Youth Risk Behavior Survey across 16 states and found:+A critical distinction: **increased reporting and visibility of transgender identities does not prove an increase in the rate of being transgender.** [(visibility)]
  
-  - In 2017: **2.4% of adolescents** identified as transgender or gender diverse, with an **AMAB:AFAB ratio of 1.5:1** +What has changed:
-  - In 2019: **1.6% of adolescents** identified as transgender or gender diverse, with an **AMAB:AFAB ratio of 1.2:1**+
  
-**In both years, transgender adolescents assigned male at birth outnumbered those assigned female at birth**, directly contradicting the social contagion hypothesis. Moreover, the overall percentage of adolescents identifying as transgender actually decreased between 2017 and 2019, which is "incongruent with a social contagion hypothesis." [(sexratio_data)]+  - Greater social acceptance and reduced stigma allow people to be honest about identities they held privately 
 +  - Increased access to language and terminology to describe experiences 
 +  - More supportive resources and information available through media and the internet 
 +  - Reduced fear of institutional and family rejection
  
-If a social contagion were driving youth to transition, we would expect ratios to shift dramatically toward assigned-female-at-birth individuals and overall percentages to increase. Neither occurred.+This is comparable to increased reporting of left-handedness after restrictions were removed in schools—the people were always left-handed; social conditions simply changed to allow them to be open about it.
  
-===== Rhetorical Function =====+==== Historical Context: Transgender People Have Always Existed ====
  
-==== The "Illusion of Truth" Tactic ====+Transgender and gender-diverse individuals have existed across cultures and throughout history. [(history)] What is new is:
  
-The phrase "transing away the gay" persists despite lacking empirical support because it functions as **rhetorical repetition and linguistic resonance**. When a claim is stated frequently enough in media and discourse, audiences begin to accept it as true regardless of evidence. The explicit modeling on "pray the gay away" leverages existing cultural familiarity with anti-gay conversion narratives. [(illusion)]+  - Contemporary terminology and clinical frameworks 
 +  - Visibility and media representation 
 +  - Medical technology enabling transition 
 +  - Legal recognition of identity
  
-This represents a known cognitive bias: the "illusory truth effect."+The existence of historical transgender people—from Two-Spirit individuals in Indigenous cultures, to hijra in South Asia, to contemporary documented cases—proves that being transgender is not a modern invention driven by social contagion.
  
-==== Historical Parallels to Anti-Gay Rhetoric ====+===== Current Political Climate Suppresses Disclosure =====
  
-The "transing away the gay" claim echoes earlier homophobic panic rhetoric:+Rather than indicating that identification rates are declining, **evidence suggests the current hostile environment is suppressing public disclosure rather than reflecting genuine decreases in transgender identity.**
  
-  - 1980s claims that gay rights advocates were "recruiting" children +==== Scale of Anti-Trans Legislation ====
-  - Modern claims that LGBTQ visibility constitutes "grooming" +
-  - The underlying structure: minority identity is a contagion that corrupts youth+
  
-This rhetorical continuity reveals that the claim functions as **generalized anti-LGBTQ animus**, not a specific empirical concern. [(parallels)]+The political landscape has become dramatically more hostile:
  
-===== What Medical Consensus Actually Shows =====+  - **569 anti-trans bills are under consideration across the U.S. in 2026**, with this number anticipated to grow [(antitrans_bills)] 
 +  - **93% of transgender youth ages 13-17 live in states that have passed or proposed laws restricting gender-affirming care, sports participation, bathroom access, or affirmation of gender identity** [(youth_affected)]
  
-Major medical organizations affirm that:+==== Behavioral Changes in Response to Hostility ====
  
-  - **Gender identity and sexual orientation are distinct, independent traits** with separate biological bases [(biology1)] +A 2025 survey found that **the majority (57%) of LGBTQ people—including 84% of transgender and nonbinary people—have made significant life decisions since November 2024**, suggesting active behavioral changes in response to the hostile climate. [(life_decisions)]
-  - **Gender-affirming care improves mental health and quality of life** for trans and gender-diverse individuals who seek it [(affirm)] +
-  - **Gender-affirming care is standard, evidence-based medical practice**, not experimental or harmful [(AMA)] +
-  - **The American Psychological Association and 61 other health care organizations** have formally denounced the validity of ROGD as a clinical diagnosis [(consensus)]+
  
-===== Understanding "Rapid Onset Parental Discovery" Instead of ROGD =====+==== Mental Health Impact of Legislation ====
  
-The term **"Rapid Onset Parental Discovery" (ROPD)** offers a more evidence-based explanation for what parents perceive as their child's "sudden" transgender identity, replacing the discredited ROGD hypothesis. [(ropd_term)]+**Anti-transgender legislation significantly increases anxiety and depression among transgender individuals,** [(mentalhealth)] which would logically reduce the likelihood of public disclosure and visibility.
  
-==== How Identity Development Actually Works ====+==== Workplace and Social Discrimination ====
  
-Research consistently demonstrates that gender identity development follows a **gradual process**, not sudden onset:+**47% of transgender employees reported workplace discrimination or harassment in the past year,** [(workplace)] and **over 80% of transgender employees in the U.S. have experienced workplace discrimination or harassment at some point.** [(workplace)]
  
-  - **Average age of first gender incongruence:** 10.4 years +This widespread discrimination creates strong disincentives for people to publicly identify as transgender, regardless of their internal sense of identity.
-  - **Average age of disclosure to parents:** 14.9 years +
-  - **Time gap:** Approximately **4.5 years** of private questioning before parental disclosure [(timeline)]+
  
-This gap reveals the core mechanism behind ROPD: **extended periods of private questioning** followed by strategic disclosure.+===== Why the Counter-Argument Refutes the "Fad" Claim =====
  
-==== Strategic Disclosure Under Safety Constraints ====+The claim that identification rates are "dropping off" conflates two very different phenomena:
  
-Many transgender youth carefully calculate **when and how to come out** based on safety concerns. They often:+  - **Actual decline in the number of transgender people** (what the social contagion narrative claims) 
 +  - **Decline in visibility and public disclosure** (what the hostile political climate actually produces)
  
-  - Test the waters with friends or trusted adults before approaching parents +Your counter-argument correctly reframes this as **"fewer people feel safe being openly trans"** rather than **"fewer people are trans."** These are fundamentally different claims, and the second is **supported by the hostile legislative and social landscape of 2025-2026.**
-  - Anticipate negative reactions and delay disclosure accordingly +
-  - Become the last person their parents learn about their identity from +
-  - Make disclosure decisions based on access to resources, living situations, and financial independence+
  
-This creates a situation where parents are often the last to know, making the revelation seem "sudden" from their perspective. [(strategic_disclosure)]+===== The Harm of the Social Contagion Narrative =====
  
-==== Retrospective Recognition of Signs ====+Regardless of its scientific invalidity, the social contagion narrative causes measurable harm:
  
-After a child comes out, many parents retrospectively recognize earlier signs of gender dysphoria they had previously misinterpreted or dismissed. One parent reflected: "Looking back, the signs were there for years, but I didn't have the framework to understand them." [(retrospective)]+==== Delayed Access to Care ====
  
-What appears to parents as 'rapid onset' is more accurately described as **'rapid disclosure'**—the culmination of a long internal process that has finally reached the point where the young person feels ready or compelled to share their identity with others.+Parents influenced by contagion fears delay or deny their children access to appropriate mental health support and gender-affirming care, exacerbating dysphoria and mental health crises.
  
-==== Longitudinal Research Confirms Stability ====+==== Family Relationship Damage ====
  
-The "TransYouth Project," the first large-scale longitudinal study of transgender children in the U.S., has found that **transgender children's gender identities remain stable over time**—contradicting the notion that these identities emerge suddenly due to external influence. [(transyouth)]+The narrative encourages parents to view their children's identities as externally imposed rather than genuine, damaging trust and family bonds.
  
-This reframing from ROGD to ROPD is not merely semantic—it fundamentally shifts our understanding from **pathologizing transgender identities** to recognizing the **complex social dynamics** that influence how and when young people disclose their gender identity to parents. It also places the focus where it belongs: on creating supportive environments where youth feel safe to express their authentic selves earlier, rather than suffering in silence for years.+==== Legislative Consequences ====
  
-===== Conclusion =====+Contagion narratives drive restrictive legislation that:
  
-The "transing away the gay" narrative is **not supported by epidemiological data, biological science, or clinical evidence**. Instead, it functions as:+  - Bans gender-affirming care 
 +  - Prohibits discussion of gender identity in schools 
 +  - Requires outing of transgender youth to parents 
 +  - Criminalizes healthcare providers
  
-  - A rhetorical device leveraging cognitive biases (illusory truth effect) +**These policies increase suicide risk among transgender youth.** [(mentalhealth)]
-  - An echo of historical anti-LGBTQ moral panic +
-  - A form of dehumanizing language that obscures the reality of transgender people and gender-affirming medicine +
-  - Part of a coordinated anti-trans effort that deliberately conflates distinct identities and harms to manufacture opposition to affirming care+
  
-The scientific evidence is clear: **being transgender is not a social contagion**. The "rapid onset gender dysphoria" hypothesis fails to withstand scientific scrutiny and contradicts the lived experiences of transgender people themselves.+==== Stigma and Social Harm ====
  
-As Dr. Alex S. Keuroghlian, director of the National LGBTQIA+ Health Education Center at the Fenway Institute, concluded: "The hypothesis that transgender and gender diverse youth assigned female at birth identify as transgender due to social contagion does not hold up to scrutiny and should not be used to argue against the provision of gender-affirming medical care for adolescents." [(keuroghlian)]+The narrative stigmatizes transgender identities as pathological social influence rather than legitimate self-knowledge, fueling discrimination and violence.
  
-Those genuinely concerned with protecting both gay and trans youth should: +===== Medical and Scientific Consensus =====
-  - Oppose all conversion therapy, including efforts targeting gender identity +
-  - Recognize that affirming care for trans youth and supporting gay youth are complementary, not contradictory goals +
-  - Demand evidence-based policy rather than rhetorical catchphrases +
-  - Recognize that both gay and trans people face real persecution—and that pitting them against each other benefits neither group +
-  - Create supportive environments where all people can explore and express their authentic selves without fear of rejection or discrimination+
  
----+Major medical organizations explicitly reject the social contagion theory:
  
-**See Also:** +  - **American Medical Association:** Supports gender-affirming care and rejects conversion therapy frameworks 
-  - [[Gender Identity vs. Sexual Orientation: Key Distinctions]] +  - **American Psychological Association:** Recognizes gender identity as fundamental and not changeable through social pressure 
-  - [[Rapid-Onset Gender Dysphoria: The Methodological Critique]] +  - **American Academy of Pediatrics:** Endorses gender-affirming care for transgender youth and opposes conversion efforts 
-  - [[Gender Identity Development Across the Lifespan]] +  - **The Lancet:** Published peer-reviewed research supporting gender-affirming care for trans and gender-diverse individuals 
-  - [[Gender-Affirming Care: Medical Consensus and Evidence]] +  - **World Health Organization:** Does not classify being transgender as a mental disorder
-  - [[Anti-Trans Disinformation Networks]] +
-  - [[Mental Health Disparities in Transgender Youth: Causes and Solutions]]+
  
-===== References =====+===== An Evidence-Based Alternative: Rapid Onset Parental Discovery (ROPD) =====
  
-[(overview)] Pittpeople. (2025). Being trans is not a social contagion. Retrieved from https://pittpeople.substack.com/p/being-trans-is-not-a-social-contagion+Rather than framing youth coming out as transgender as evidence of social contagion, an evidence-based framework acknowledges **Rapid Onset Parental Discovery (ROPD)**:
  
-[(defn)] Wiktionary. (2022, November 12). Trans the gay away. Retrieved from https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/trans_the_gay_away+==== What ROPD Describes ====
  
-[(independence1)] (2017). Neurobiology of gender identity and sexual orientation. //British Society for Neuroendocrinology//, //Journal of Neuroendocrinology//, 29(7). https://doi.org/10.1111/jne.12552+ROPD explains the apparent "sudden" disclosure by recognizing:
  
-[(independence2)] (2019). Neurobiology of gender identity and sexual orientation. //Frontiers in Neuroendocrinology//, 45, 109–127.+  - **Extended Private Questioning:** Youth spend months or years exploring their identity privately before any disclosure 
 +  - **Strategic Timing:** Disclosure to parents occurs when youth feel safe enough, which may be years after identity realization 
 +  - **Safety-Based Delay:** Many youth delay disclosure due to fear of rejection, abuse, or loss of family support 
 +  - **Parental Retrospective Reinterpretation:** Parents, upon learning of their child's identity, may recognize earlier signs they had previously dismissed or misinterpreted 
 +  - **Longitudinal Development:** Research confirms gender identity develops gradually throughout childhood and adolescence
  
-[(independence3)] Sexual Orientation & Gender Identity. (2017). Introduction to psychology. Lumen Learning. Retrieved from https://courses.lumenlearning.com/psychologygeneralwaysection/chapter/sexual-orientation-gender-identity/+==== Why ROPD Is More Accurate ====
  
-[(genderx)] Gender Crossroads. (2022). "Transing the gay away." Retrieved from https://www.gendercrossroads.org/p/transing-the-gay-away+ROPD:
  
-[(sudden)] Pittpeople. (2025). Being trans is not a social contagion: Research on gender identity onset. Retrieved from https://pittpeople.substack.com/p/being-trans-is-not-a-social-contagion+  - Aligns with longitudinal research on gender identity development 
 +  - Centers the experiences of transgender youth themselves rather than parent reports 
 +  - Acknowledges real barriers to disclosure 
 +  - Does not pathologize authentic identity expression 
 +  - Supports family communication and understanding
  
-[(ehrensaft)] Ibid.+===== Historical Parallel: The Recycled Homophobic Playbook =====
  
-[(misrep)] TransLucent UK. (2022). "Transing the gay away"—Part 3: Analyzing the desistence argument. Retrieved from https://translucent.org.uk/transing-the-gay-away-part3/+It should be noted that the "social contagion" argument is not new. Similar arguments were used to dismiss increased visibility of gay and lesbian populations decades ago. When stigma decreases and visibility increases, it does not mean the population is newly created—it means previously invisible populations can finally be open about who they are.
  
-[(bullying_data)] Kidd, K. M., Sequeira, G. M., Douglas, C., Paglisotti, T., Inwards-Breland, D. J., Miller, E., & Coulter, R. W. S. (2022). Sex assigned at birth ratio among transgender and gender diverse adolescents in the United States. //Pediatrics//, 150(3), e2022010657. https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2022-010657+The "social contagion" narrative of 2025-2026 is fundamentally the same rhetorical strategy that was deployed against gay and lesbian people in the 1990s and 2000s, recycled with updated language and contemporary targets.
  
-[(turban)] Yurcaba, J. (2022, August 3). 'Social contagion' isn't causing more youths to be transgender, study finds. //NBC News//. Retrieved from https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-health-and-wellness/social-contagion-isnt-causing-youths-transgender-study-finds-rcna41392+===== Conclusion =====
  
-[(sexratio_data)] Kidd, K. M., Sequeira, G. M., Douglas, C., Paglisotti, T., Inwards-Breland, D. J., Miller, E., & Coulter, R. W. S. (2022). Sex assigned at birth ratio among transgender and gender diverse adolescents in the United States. //Pediatrics//, 150(3), e2022010657. https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2022-010657+The "social contagion" narrative lacks scientific validity and causes demonstrable harm.
  
-[(illusion)] Schwarz, N., Sanna, C., Skurnik, I., & Yoon, C. (2007). Metacognitive experiences and the intricacies of setting people straight: Implications for debiasing and public information campaigns. //Advances in Consumer Research//, 34, 126–131.+**The evidence is clear:**
  
-[(parallels)] This rhetorical parallel draws on documented histories of anti-LGBTQ moral panic campaigns. See: Katz, J. N. (2001). //Love makes a family: Portraits and stories//. Random House.+  - Transgender identities are not spreading like a contagion 
 +  - Gender identity development is gradual and well-documented 
 +  - Increased visibility reflects reduced stigma, not increased rates of being transgender 
 +  - ROGD lacks methodological rigor and is not recognized as a formal diagnosis 
 +  - Medical consensus opposes the contagion framework 
 +  - Transgender youth face genuine suffering from discrimination—a direct result of contagion narratives—not benefits 
 +  - The current hostile political climate is suppressing disclosure, not indicating declining rates of being transgender 
 + 
 +Those genuinely concerned with youth wellbeing should: 
 + 
 +  - Recognize that transgender identities are real and developed through genuine internal processes 
 +  - Support family environments that affirm youth identity 
 +  - Oppose restrictions on access to mental health care and support services 
 +  - Address the actual drivers of poor mental health outcomes: stigma, discrimination, and lack of social support 
 +  - Allow youth the space to explore and express their authentic selves 
 + 
 +===== References =====
  
-[(biology1)] (2019). Neurobiology of gender identity and sexual orientation. //PLOS Biology//, 18(3), e3000554. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000554+[(sexratio> Kidd, K. M., Sequeira, G. M., Douglas, C., Paglisotti, T., Inwards-Breland, D. J., Miller, E., & Coulter, R. W. S. (2022). Sex assigned at birth ratio among transgender and gender diverse adolescents in the United States. //Pediatrics//, 150(3), e2022056567. )]
  
-[(affirm)] Provision of gender-affirming care for trans and gender-diverse adults. (2025). //The Lancet//, 9(2), e247–e255. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2667-1841(24)00272-X+[(rogd_flaws> Littman, L. (2018). Rapid-onset gender dysphoria in adolescents and young adults: A study of parental reports. //PLOS ONE//, 13(8), e0202330. Note: This study has been subject to substantial methodological criticism due to recruitment exclusively from anti-trans parental websites, reliance on parent reports rather than direct youth assessment, lack of diagnostic criteria or clinical interviews, and absence of longitudinal data to establish causality. )]
  
-[(AMA)] American Medical Association. (2022). //Health insurance coverage for gender-affirming care of transgender patients//. Retrieved from https://www.ama-assn.org/system/files/transgender-coverage-issue-brief.pdf+[(identity_gradual> Research on gender identity development consistently demonstrates that youth realize their gender identity long before disclosure to parents, with extended periods of private questioning occurring years before coming out to family members or peers. )]
  
-[(consensus)] Pittpeople. (2025). Being trans is not a social contagion. Retrieved from https://pittpeople.substack.com/p/being-trans-is-not-a-social-contagion+[(visibility> Greater social acceptance and reduced stigma allow people to be honest about identities they held privately throughout their lives. This increase in visibility and willingness to disclose does not indicate an increase in the rate of being transgender. )]
  
-[(ropd_term)] Pittpeople. (2025). Being trans is not a social contagion. Retrieved from https://pittpeople.substack.com/p/being-trans-is-not-a-social-contagion+[(history> Stryker, S. (2008). //Transgender history//. Seal Press. & Roughgarden, J. (2004). //Evolution's rainbow: Diversity, gender, and sexuality in nature and people//. University of California Press. )]
  
-[(timeline)] Ibid.+[(antitrans_bills> Trans Legislation Tracker. (2026). Trans legislation tracker: 2026 anti-trans bills. Retrieved from https://translegislation.com/ )]
  
-[(strategic_disclosure)] Ibid.+[(youth_affected> The Williams Institute. (2024). The impact of 2024 anti-transgender legislation on youth. Retrieved from https://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/publications/2024-anti-trans-legislation/ )]
  
-[(retrospective)] Ibid.+[(life_decisions> Movement Advancement Project & NORC. (2025). New survey reveals dramatic changes for LGBTQ adults since election. Retrieved from https://www.mapresearch.org/policy-and-issue-analysis/2025-norc-survey-report )]
  
-[(transyouth)] Ibid.+[(mentalhealth> American Civil Liberties Union. (2024). The impacts of anti-transgender laws and policies: Evidence from empirical research. Retrieved from https://www.aclu.org/publications/the-impacts-of-anti-transgender-laws-and-policies-evidence-from-empirical-research )]
  
-[(keuroghlian)] Turban, J. L., & Keuroghlian, A. S. (2023, May 10). Evidence undermines 'rapid onset gender dysphoria' claims. //Scientific American//. https://web.archive.org/web/20250512192558/https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/evidence-undermines-rapid-onset-gender-dysphoria-claims/+[(workplace> The Williams Institute. (2024). Workplace experiences of transgender employees. Retrieved from https://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/press/trans-workplace-press-release/ )]
  

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