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debunking-tw-offend-rate [2026/01/19 14:00] – valahdebunking-tw-offend-rate [2026/01/19 14:18] (current) – valah
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 Any claim suggesting: Any claim suggesting:
  
-    Over-representation of trans women in prisons for "sexual offenses" +   * Over-representation of trans women in prisons for "sexual offenses" 
-    Trans women are per-capita more likely to commit "sexual offenses" +  *  Trans women are per-capita more likely to commit "sexual offenses" 
-    Trans women pose a greater risk/threat to cisgender people +  *  Trans women pose a greater risk/threat to cisgender people 
-    Based on prison composition statistics or "The Swedish Study"+  *  Based on prison composition statistics or "The Swedish Study"
  
-This Image+This Image:
  
 {{:trans-offender.jpg?600|}} {{:trans-offender.jpg?600|}}
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 The Classroom Analogy The Classroom Analogy
  
-    Classroom A: 245 students, 151 like chocolate = 61.6% +      * Classroom A: 245 students, 151 like chocolate = 61.6% 
-    Classroom B: 80,000 students, 13,600 like chocolate = 17.0%+  *     Classroom B: 80,000 students, 13,600 like chocolate = 17.0%
  
 Does Classroom A "like chocolate more"? No. Classroom B has 90 times more chocolate lovers—it just looks smaller as a percentage because the classroom is massive. Does Classroom A "like chocolate more"? No. Classroom B has 90 times more chocolate lovers—it just looks smaller as a percentage because the classroom is massive.
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 The MoJ only counts trans prisoners who: The MoJ only counts trans prisoners who:
  
-    Have had a "case conference" (typically for sentences over 1 year) +      * Have had a "case conference" (typically for sentences over 1 year) 
-    Have disclosed their trans status +  *     Have disclosed their trans status 
-    Don't have a Gender Recognition Certificate (GRC)+  *     Don't have a Gender Recognition Certificate (GRC)
  
 From the MoJ itself: From the MoJ itself:
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 The actual calculation (if you wanted to do per-capita, which still has problems): The actual calculation (if you wanted to do per-capita, which still has problems):
  
-    UK trans population: ~48,000-262,000 (estimates vary) +      * UK trans population: ~48,000-262,000 (estimates vary) 
-    Trans women sex offenders in prison: 151 +  *     Trans women sex offenders in prison: 151 
-    Rate: 151 ÷ 48,000 × 1,000,000 = 3,146 per million+  *     Rate: 151 ÷ 48,000 × 1,000,000 = 3,146 per million
  
 Wait, that's even higher! Except it's still wrong because: Wait, that's even higher! Except it's still wrong because:
  
-    That 151 only counts a snapshot of who's in prison right now +      * That 151 only counts a snapshot of who's in prison right now 
-    It excludes those with GRCs +  *     It excludes those with GRCs 
-    It's subject to the selection bias above +  *     It's subject to the selection bias above 
-    Prison composition ≠ offense rates+  *     Prison composition ≠ offense rates
  
 === Bonus: Statistical Invalidity === === Bonus: Statistical Invalidity ===
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 This study: This study:
  
-    Only examined 324 people who had full surgical transition +      * Only examined 324 people who had full surgical transition 
-    Covered 1973-2003 (decades old) +  *     Covered 1973-2003 (decades old) 
-    Found NO difference in the later cohort (1989-2003) +  *     Found NO difference in the later cohort (1989-2003) 
-    Has been repeatedly misrepresented+  *     Has been repeatedly misrepresented
  
 See our full article: [[debunking-swedish-study|The Swedish Study: What It Actually Says]] See our full article: [[debunking-swedish-study|The Swedish Study: What It Actually Says]]
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 This is why icon arrays are propaganda tools when applied to rare populations and rates. They conflate two completely different things: This is why icon arrays are propaganda tools when applied to rare populations and rates. They conflate two completely different things:
  
-    Counts (absolute numbers: "151 people") communicate scale honestly +      * Counts (absolute numbers: "151 people") communicate scale honestly 
-    Rates (per million) communicate frequency, but when visualized as icon counts, they lie about scale+  *     Rates (per million) communicate frequency, but when visualized as icon counts, they lie about scale
  
 The correct visualization: 151 icons representing all trans women sex offenders, surrounded by 13,600 icons for cisgender men. That's what honesty looks like. The correct visualization: 151 icons representing all trans women sex offenders, surrounded by 13,600 icons for cisgender men. That's what honesty looks like.
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 Serious violent offenses: Serious violent offenses:
  
-    Rape and attempted rape +      * Rape and attempted rape 
-    Sexual assault and attempted sexual assault +  *     Sexual assault and attempted sexual assault 
-    Child sexual abuse offenses +  *     Child sexual abuse offenses 
-    Indecent assault+  *     Indecent assault
  
 Non-violent and non-contact offenses: Non-violent and non-contact offenses:
  
-    Possession of indecent images +      * Possession of indecent images 
-    Distribution of indecent images +  *     Distribution of indecent images 
-    Making/downloading indecent images +  *     Making/downloading indecent images 
-    Voyeurism +  *     Voyeurism 
-    Exposure/indecent exposure +  *     Exposure/indecent exposure 
-    Outraging public decency+  *     Outraging public decency
  
 Sex work-related offenses: Sex work-related offenses:
  
-    Soliciting for prostitution +      * Soliciting for prostitution 
-    Loitering for prostitution +  *     Loitering for prostitution 
-    Controlling prostitution +  *     Controlling prostitution 
-    Keeping a brothel +  *     Keeping a brothel 
-    Advertising sexual services+  *     Advertising sexual services
  
 Other sexual offenses: Other sexual offenses:
  
-    Sexual activity in a public toilet +      * Sexual activity in a public toilet 
-    Breach of Sexual Harm Prevention Order +  *     Breach of Sexual Harm Prevention Order 
-    Failure to register as sex offender +  *     Failure to register as sex offender 
-    Various consent and age-of-consent related charges+  *     Various consent and age-of-consent related charges
  
 ==== Why This Matters ==== ==== Why This Matters ====
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 When someone hears "151 trans women sex offenders," most people picture rapists and child abusers. But that category could include: When someone hears "151 trans women sex offenders," most people picture rapists and child abusers. But that category could include:
  
-    Someone convicted of soliciting for sex work +      * Someone convicted of soliciting for sex work 
-    Someone who failed to register an address change as a former offender +  *     Someone who failed to register an address change as a former offender 
-    Someone caught with downloaded pornography +  *     Someone caught with downloaded pornography 
-    Someone convicted of public indecency +  *     Someone convicted of public indecency 
-    Someone convicted of rape or sexual assault +  *     Someone convicted of rape or sexual assault 
 +  * 
 These are NOT equivalent crimes, yet they're lumped together in the statistics. Without a breakdown, we cannot know the distribution. These are NOT equivalent crimes, yet they're lumped together in the statistics. Without a breakdown, we cannot know the distribution.
  
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 Trans women, particularly trans women of color, are disproportionately pushed into survival sex work due to: Trans women, particularly trans women of color, are disproportionately pushed into survival sex work due to:
  
-    Employment discrimination +      * Employment discrimination 
-    Housing discrimination +  *     Housing discrimination 
-    Family rejection +  *     Family rejection 
-    Lack of economic opportunities +  *     Lack of economic opportunities 
 +  * 
 Research shows: Research shows:
  
-    Trans women are far more likely to engage in sex work than cisgender women +      * Trans women are far more likely to engage in sex work than cisgender women 
-    Trans women in sex work face higher rates of criminalization +  *     Trans women in sex work face higher rates of criminalization 
-    Many "sexual offense" convictions are actually sex work-related charges+  *     Many "sexual offense" convictions are actually sex work-related charges
  
 This means the "sexual offense" statistics may be inflated by survival crimes, not violent offenses. Without detailed breakdowns, we cannot determine how much. This means the "sexual offense" statistics may be inflated by survival crimes, not violent offenses. Without detailed breakdowns, we cannot determine how much.
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 Why? Because you need: Why? Because you need:
  
-    Total population size (not just prisoners) +      * Total population size (not just prisoners) 
-    Reporting rates +  *     Reporting rates 
-    Conviction rates +  *     Conviction rates 
-    Sentencing patterns +  *     Sentencing patterns 
-    Who's still in prison vs. who's been released+  *     Who's still in prison vs. who's been released
  
 The absurd example: "75% of maximum security prisoners are violent offenders, therefore 75% of people are violent." The absurd example: "75% of maximum security prisoners are violent offenders, therefore 75% of people are violent."
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 Twelve additional cases: Twelve additional cases:
  
-    Changes trans women rate by 7.9% +  *     Changes trans women rate by 7.9% 
-    Doesn't even round cisgender men rate+  *     Doesn't even round cisgender men rate
  
 This is why per-capita fails with vastly different population sizes. Small absolute changes create huge percentage swings in the smaller group. This is why per-capita fails with vastly different population sizes. Small absolute changes create huge percentage swings in the smaller group.
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 Ask the right question: "Who commits these crimes?" Ask the right question: "Who commits these crimes?"
  
-{{ :sex-offense-convictions-by-group.png?600 |}}+<WRAP group> 
 +<WRAP half column> 
 +{{:sex-offense-convictions-by-group.png?600|Image 1}} 
 +</WRAP> 
 + 
 +<WRAP half column> 
 +{{:xuhar-sex-offense-convictions-by-group-.png?600|Image 2}} 
 +</WRAP> 
 +</WRAP>
  
 ^ Group ^ Sex Offenders ^ Percentage of All Sex Offenders ^ ^ Group ^ Sex Offenders ^ Percentage of All Sex Offenders ^
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 Now put it in population context: Now put it in population context:
  
-    151 out of ~59.6 million UK population = 0.000253% +    *   151 out of ~59.6 million UK population = 0.000253% 
-    Or: 1 in 394,704 people+  *     Or: 1 in 394,704 people
  
 ==== Category Switching: Analytical Inconsistency ==== ==== Category Switching: Analytical Inconsistency ====
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 If you used the manipulated statistics to guide policy, you'd: If you used the manipulated statistics to guide policy, you'd:
  
-    Focus resources on 151 people +      * Focus resources on 151 people 
-    While ignoring 13,600 people +  *     While ignoring 13,600 people 
-    Because percentages looked scarier +  *     Because percentages looked scarier 
 +  * 
 This is how over-policing of minorities happens while the majority committing crimes gets ignored. This is how over-policing of minorities happens while the majority committing crimes gets ignored.
  
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 Using total convicted individuals (not just prisoners): Using total convicted individuals (not just prisoners):
  
-    3.15 trans people per million have sexual offense convictions +      * 3.15 trans people per million have sexual offense convictions 
-    230 cisgender men per million have sexual offense convictions+  *     230 cisgender men per million have sexual offense convictions
  
 Even this comparison has problems (reporting rates, conviction rates), but it's far more valid than prison composition data. Even this comparison has problems (reporting rates, conviction rates), but it's far more valid than prison composition data.
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 Multiple peer-reviewed studies examining bathroom policies find: Multiple peer-reviewed studies examining bathroom policies find:
  
-    No increase in sexual assault in jurisdictions with trans-inclusive bathroom policies +      * No increase in sexual assault in jurisdictions with trans-inclusive bathroom policies 
-    Trans people are victims of violence at twice the rate of cisgender people (UK data)+  *     Trans people are victims of violence at twice the rate of cisgender people (UK data)
  
 The original claim: "There are no recorded cases of a trans woman sexually assaulting a woman in a UK public toilet." The original claim: "There are no recorded cases of a trans woman sexually assaulting a woman in a UK public toilet."
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 Prison data doesn't refute this because: Prison data doesn't refute this because:
  
-    Doesn't specify location of offenses +  *     Doesn't specify location of offenses 
-    Doesn't distinguish offense types +  *     Doesn't distinguish offense types 
-    Can't tell us about bathrooms specifically+  *     Can't tell us about bathrooms specifically
  
 ===== Important Context: Trans Women in Female Prisons ===== ===== Important Context: Trans Women in Female Prisons =====
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 The claims rest on: The claims rest on:
  
-    Comparing percentages of vastly different sized groups (151 vs 13,600) +      * Comparing percentages of vastly different sized groups (151 vs 13,600) 
-    Selection bias (only counting long-sentence prisoners) +  *     Selection bias (only counting long-sentence prisoners) 
-    Fabricated statistics (inflated per-capita figures appear unsupported) +  *     Fabricated statistics (inflated per-capita figures appear unsupported) 
-    Confusing prison composition with crime rates (completely different calculations) +  *     Confusing prison composition with crime rates (completely different calculations) 
-    Misusing per-capita (doesn't work with 600x population differences)+  *     Misusing per-capita (doesn't work with 600x population differences)
  
 The reality: The reality:
  
-    98.9% of sexual offense prisoners are cisgender men +      * 98.9% of sexual offense prisoners are cisgender men 
-    1.1% are trans women +  *     1.1% are trans women 
-    That's 1 in 394,704 people in the UK +  *     That's 1 in 394,704 people in the UK 
-    Research shows no safety concerns with trans-inclusive policies +  *     Research shows no safety concerns with trans-inclusive policies 
-    Policy protections are already in place+  *     Policy protections are already in place
  
 When statistics are presented without proper context or with misleading comparisons between vastly different group sizes, they distort reality. When statistics are presented without proper context or with misleading comparisons between vastly different group sizes, they distort reality.
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 ===== Sources ===== ===== Sources =====
  
-    UK Ministry of Justice FOI data (March 2024) +      * UK Ministry of Justice FOI data (March 2024) 
-    TransVitae: "Behind the Stats: How TERFs Twist Trans Prisoner Figures" (January 2025) +  *     TransVitae: "Behind the Stats: How TERFs Twist Trans Prisoner Figures" (January 2025) 
-    BBC Reality Check: "How many transgender inmates are there?" (2018) +  *     BBC Reality Check: "How many transgender inmates are there?" (2018) 
-    Stop Hate UK: Transgender hate crime statistics +  *     Stop Hate UK: Transgender hate crime statistics 
-    American Academy of Pediatrics: Bathroom policy studies +  *     American Academy of Pediatrics: Bathroom policy studies 
-    Springer: Safety and privacy research+  *     Springer: Safety and privacy research
  

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