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debunking-desistance [2025/12/29 02:41] – valahdebunking-desistance [2025/12/29 15:50] (current) – [What Modern Research Actually Shows] valah
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 All of these claims rely on the same misapplication of outdated research, conflation of different populations, and misreading of study findings. We'll break down how this narrative distorts the actual evidence. All of these claims rely on the same misapplication of outdated research, conflation of different populations, and misreading of study findings. We'll break down how this narrative distorts the actual evidence.
  
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 ==== What "Desistance" Studies Actually Measured ==== ==== What "Desistance" Studies Actually Measured ====
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 These are **not the same thing.** [(des7)] These are **not the same thing.** [(des7)]
  
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 ===== Myth 1: "Studies Show 60-90% of Trans Kids Desist" ===== ===== Myth 1: "Studies Show 60-90% of Trans Kids Desist" =====
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 **The studies were predicting sexual orientation, not gender identity persistence.** [(des11)] **The studies were predicting sexual orientation, not gender identity persistence.** [(des11)]
  
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 ===== Myth 2: "Intensity of Dysphoria Doesn't Matter" ===== ===== Myth 2: "Intensity of Dysphoria Doesn't Matter" =====
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 If you examine the actual data: **"Of the 67 boys who had not socially transitioned, only 13 (19.4%) were classified as persisters."** [(des14)] But this doesn't mean desistance is inevitable—it shows what happens when dysphoric children aren't socially affirmed. If you examine the actual data: **"Of the 67 boys who had not socially transitioned, only 13 (19.4%) were classified as persisters."** [(des14)] But this doesn't mean desistance is inevitable—it shows what happens when dysphoric children aren't socially affirmed.
  
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 ===== Myth 3: "Social Transition Doesn't Predict Persistence" ===== ===== Myth 3: "Social Transition Doesn't Predict Persistence" =====
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 **This is the opposite of what opponents claim.** Social transition—not medicalization, not puberty blockers—is the strongest factor predicting persistence. The desistance studies show that **social affirmation strengthens gender identity persistence**, not weakens it. [(des16)] **This is the opposite of what opponents claim.** Social transition—not medicalization, not puberty blockers—is the strongest factor predicting persistence. The desistance studies show that **social affirmation strengthens gender identity persistence**, not weakens it. [(des16)]
  
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 ===== Myth 4: "Modern Research Contradicts This" ===== ===== Myth 4: "Modern Research Contradicts This" =====
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 **Compare the populations:** **Compare the populations:**
  
-| Population | Time Period | Dysphoria Criteria | Socially Transitioned | Persistence Rate | +^ Population ^ Time Period ^ Dysphoria Criteria ^ Socially Transitioned ^ Persistence Rate ^
-|---|---|---|---|---|+
 | **Early desistance studies** | 1970s-1990s | DSM-III/IV (no distress requirement) | No | ~20% | | **Early desistance studies** | 1970s-1990s | DSM-III/IV (no distress requirement) | No | ~20% |
 | **Trans Youth Project** | 2010s-2020s | Modern standards | Yes | 92.7% | | **Trans Youth Project** | 2010s-2020s | Modern standards | Yes | 92.7% |
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 The difference isn't methodology—it's the population being studied. [(des20)] The difference isn't methodology—it's the population being studied. [(des20)]
  
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 ===== Myth 5: "Desistance Concept Is Valid" ===== ===== Myth 5: "Desistance Concept Is Valid" =====
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 The field is moving toward abandoning "desistance" language precisely because it conflates too many different phenomena. [(des22)] The field is moving toward abandoning "desistance" language precisely because it conflates too many different phenomena. [(des22)]
  
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 ===== Myth 6: "Gender-Nonconforming Kids Are Just 'Going Through a Phase'" ===== ===== Myth 6: "Gender-Nonconforming Kids Are Just 'Going Through a Phase'" =====
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 This distinction is routinely erased in anti-trans narratives that lump all gender-nonconforming children together. This distinction is routinely erased in anti-trans narratives that lump all gender-nonconforming children together.
  
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 ===== Myth 7: "Social Transition Is Too Risky Without Watchful Waiting" ===== ===== Myth 7: "Social Transition Is Too Risky Without Watchful Waiting" =====
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 **True regret requiring reversal of transition is extremely rare** in the literature, while the mental health benefits of affirmation are consistent. [(des29)] **True regret requiring reversal of transition is extremely rare** in the literature, while the mental health benefits of affirmation are consistent. [(des29)]
  
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 ===== Myth 8: "We Don't Know How Many Kids Will Persist" ===== ===== Myth 8: "We Don't Know How Many Kids Will Persist" =====
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 Younger children receive social support and affirming therapy. Puberty blockers are offered only to adolescents with sustained, clinically significant dysphoria. [(des31)] This is not "uncertain"—it's evidence-based risk stratification. Younger children receive social support and affirming therapy. Puberty blockers are offered only to adolescents with sustained, clinically significant dysphoria. [(des31)] This is not "uncertain"—it's evidence-based risk stratification.
  
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 ===== The False Analogy: Comparing Different Eras ===== ===== The False Analogy: Comparing Different Eras =====
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 You cannot use outcomes from a non-medicalized, non-socially-transitioned era to predict outcomes in a socially-affirmed era. These are incomparable populations. You cannot use outcomes from a non-medicalized, non-socially-transitioned era to predict outcomes in a socially-affirmed era. These are incomparable populations.
  
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 ===== Socially Transitioned Children Show Positive Mental Health ===== ===== Socially Transitioned Children Show Positive Mental Health =====
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 **What this means:** The evidence base doesn't support "watchful waiting" or withholding affirmation. It supports gender-affirming care from the beginning. [(des37)] **What this means:** The evidence base doesn't support "watchful waiting" or withholding affirmation. It supports gender-affirming care from the beginning. [(des37)]
  
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 ===== Bottom Line ===== ===== Bottom Line =====
  
-| Claim | Reality | +^ Claim ^ Reality ^
-|-------|---------|+
 | "60-90% of trans kids desist" | These studies examined gender-nonconforming children, 83% of whom didn't meet dysphoria criteria | | "60-90% of trans kids desist" | These studies examined gender-nonconforming children, 83% of whom didn't meet dysphoria criteria |
 | "Intensity doesn't predict persistence" | The studies themselves show intensity strongly predicts persistence | | "Intensity doesn't predict persistence" | The studies themselves show intensity strongly predicts persistence |
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 The "desistance" narrative relies on conflating gender-nonconformity with gender dysphoria and comparing incomparable eras. When the actual evidence is examined closely, it supports gender-affirmative care, not caution about affirmation. The "desistance" narrative relies on conflating gender-nonconformity with gender dysphoria and comparing incomparable eras. When the actual evidence is examined closely, it supports gender-affirmative care, not caution about affirmation.
  
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 ====== References ====== ====== References ======

Trace: • common-sources-misinfo

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