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| debunking-desistance [2025/12/29 02:02] – created valah | debunking-desistance [2025/12/29 15:50] (current) – [What Modern Research Actually Shows] valah | ||
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| ==== The Transmisic Narrative ==== | ==== The Transmisic Narrative ==== | ||
| - | **Claim 1:** " | + | **Claim 1:** " |
| - | **Claim 2:** "Most kids who think they' | + | **Claim 2:** "Most kids who think they' |
| - | **Claim 3:** "The high desistance rates prove that we shouldn' | + | **Claim 3:** "The high desistance rates prove that we shouldn' |
| Any claim suggesting: | Any claim suggesting: | ||
| Line 24: | Line 24: | ||
| ==== What " | ==== What " | ||
| - | **The critical problem:** The studies cited to support "high desistance rates" did not study transgender children or measure persistence of gender dysphoria. They studied something fundamentally different. | + | **The critical problem:** The studies cited to support "high desistance rates" did not study transgender children or measure persistence of gender dysphoria. They studied something fundamentally different. |
| - | **What the early studies actually examined: | + | **What the early studies actually examined:** Earlier research recruited children who showed " |
| **The distinction matters enormously: | **The distinction matters enormously: | ||
| Line 34: | Line 34: | ||
| * **Gender identity** = one's internal sense of gender | * **Gender identity** = one's internal sense of gender | ||
| - | These are **not the same thing.** [[# | + | These are **not the same thing.** [(des7)] |
| Line 47: | Line 48: | ||
| **The actual finding from desistance studies:** | **The actual finding from desistance studies:** | ||
| - | **Most children in these studies were NOT persistently dysphoric in the first place.** [[# | + | **Most children in these studies were NOT persistently dysphoric in the first place.** [(des8)] Fewer than 17% of participants met DSM-5 diagnostic criteria for Gender Dysphoria in Childhood. [(des9)] |
| - | **Translation: | + | **Translation: |
| - | **The studies were predicting sexual orientation, | + | **The studies were predicting sexual orientation, |
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| **Even within the desistance studies themselves, there is clear evidence contradicting this:** | **Even within the desistance studies themselves, there is clear evidence contradicting this:** | ||
| - | **" | + | **" |
| - | **What this actually means:** Children with stronger, more persistent gender dysphoria were more likely to maintain their gender identity into adulthood. [[# | + | **What this actually means:** Children with stronger, more persistent gender dysphoria were more likely to maintain their gender identity into adulthood. [(des13)] |
| **The contrast is striking:** | **The contrast is striking:** | ||
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| * **Persisters: | * **Persisters: | ||
| - | If you examine the actual data: [[#cite-8|"Of the 67 boys who had not socially transitioned, | + | If you examine the actual data: **"Of the 67 boys who had not socially transitioned, |
| Line 88: | Line 89: | ||
| This is where the desistance narrative completely falls apart. | This is where the desistance narrative completely falls apart. | ||
| - | **The actual Steensma finding: | + | **The actual Steensma finding: |
| - | **This is the opposite of what opponents claim.** Social transition—not medicalization, | + | **This is the opposite of what opponents claim.** Social transition—not medicalization, |
| - | + | ||
| - | The desistance studies show that **social affirmation strengthens gender identity persistence**, | + | |
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| **The Trans Youth Project provides the most rigorous modern data:** | **The Trans Youth Project provides the most rigorous modern data:** | ||
| - | **[[#cite-11|"No hormonal or surgical interventions are involved in transitions at this young age."]]** This is crucial: the high persistence rates occurred **without puberty blockers or hormones**. | + | **"No hormonal or surgical interventions are involved in transitions at this young age." |
| - | **The actual finding: | + | **The actual finding:** "An average of 5 years after their initial social transition, 7.3% of youth had retransitioned at least once." |
| - | **This means: 92.7% of socially transitioned youth maintained their gender identity 5 years later.** | + | **This means: 92.7% of socially transitioned youth maintained their gender identity 5 years later.** |
| **Compare the populations: | **Compare the populations: | ||
| - | | Population | + | ^ Population |
| - | |---|---|---|---|---| | + | |
| | **Early desistance studies** | 1970s-1990s | DSM-III/IV (no distress requirement) | No | ~20% | | | **Early desistance studies** | 1970s-1990s | DSM-III/IV (no distress requirement) | No | ~20% | | ||
| | **Trans Youth Project** | 2010s-2020s | Modern standards | Yes | 92.7% | | | **Trans Youth Project** | 2010s-2020s | Modern standards | Yes | 92.7% | | ||
| - | The difference isn't methodology—it' | + | The difference isn't methodology—it' |
| - | --- | ||
| ===== Myth 5: " | ===== Myth 5: " | ||
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| ==== What Recent Scholarship Shows ==== | ==== What Recent Scholarship Shows ==== | ||
| - | **A 2024 systematic review concluded the opposite:** | + | **A recent |
| - | **" | + | **" |
| **Why?** | **Why?** | ||
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| - **Stifles understanding: | - **Stifles understanding: | ||
| - | The field is moving | + | The field is moving |
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | ===== Myth 6: " | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== The Claim ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | Early childhood gender-nonconformity is just normal behavior variation that will resolve on its own. | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== What the Research Actually Shows ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | **There is an important distinction: | ||
| + | |||
| + | Children who show gender-nonconforming **behavior alone** without persistent gender dysphoria often do not continue to identify as transgender. [(des23)] This is true and not contradicted by the evidence. | ||
| + | |||
| + | **However, the critical caveat:** | ||
| + | |||
| + | " | ||
| + | |||
| + | **The key word is " | ||
| + | |||
| + | This distinction is routinely erased in anti-trans narratives that lump all gender-nonconforming children together. | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | ===== Myth 7: " | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== The Claim ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | Children should not be allowed to socially transition because they might regret it later. | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== What the Evidence Actually Shows ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | **Socially transitioned youth show excellent mental health outcomes: | ||
| + | |||
| + | " | ||
| + | |||
| + | " | ||
| + | |||
| + | **Actual regret rates:** | ||
| + | |||
| + | The Trans Youth Project found that 7.3% of socially transitioned youth had **retransitioned at least once** after 5 years. [(des28)] This does not mean regret—it includes youth who explored different identities and returned to their affirmed identity, or made adjustments to their identity expression. | ||
| + | |||
| + | **True regret requiring reversal of transition is extremely rare** in the literature, while the mental health benefits of affirmation are consistent. [(des29)] | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | ===== Myth 8: "We Don't Know How Many Kids Will Persist" | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== The Claim ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | "The evidence is too uncertain to recommend affirming care." | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== What the Evidence Actually Shows ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | **By age 10-13, gender dysphoria shows clear patterns: | ||
| + | |||
| + | "For most children with GDC, whether GD will persist or desist will probably be determined between the ages of 10 and 13 years, although some may need more time." [(des30)] | ||
| + | |||
| + | **Intensity is the predictor: | ||
| + | |||
| + | - **High-intensity dysphoria** = high persistence rates | ||
| + | - **Low-intensity gender-nonconformity** = variable outcomes | ||
| + | |||
| + | **The modern approach appropriately reflects this:** | ||
| + | |||
| + | Younger children receive social support and affirming therapy. Puberty blockers are offered only to adolescents with sustained, clinically significant dysphoria. [(des31)] This is not " | ||
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| **The populations are fundamentally different: | **The populations are fundamentally different: | ||
| - | **1970s-1990s studies:** [[#cite-14|Examined children referred for " | + | **1970s-1990s studies:** [(des32)] |
| + | | ||
| - Primarily measured " | - Primarily measured " | ||
| - Used DSM-III/IV criteria that did NOT require distress or dysphoria | - Used DSM-III/IV criteria that did NOT require distress or dysphoria | ||
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| - Most were later classified as gay/lesbian (not dysphoric) | - Most were later classified as gay/lesbian (not dysphoric) | ||
| - | **Modern context:** [[# | + | **Modern context:** [(des33)] |
| - Examines children with **persistent, | - Examines children with **persistent, | ||
| - Uses DSM-5 criteria requiring documented distress | - Uses DSM-5 criteria requiring documented distress | ||
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| - Most maintain their identity over 5+ years | - Most maintain their identity over 5+ years | ||
| - | **The key distinction: | + | **The key distinction: |
| - | You cannot use outcomes from a non-medicalized, | + | You cannot use outcomes from a non-medicalized, |
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | ===== Socially Transitioned Children Show Positive Mental Health ===== | ||
| + | |||
| + | **Key Finding:** Children affirmed in their gender identity show mental health outcomes comparable to their cisgender peers. [(des36)] | ||
| + | |||
| + | **What this means:** The evidence base doesn' | ||
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| ===== Bottom Line ===== | ===== Bottom Line ===== | ||
| - | | Claim | Reality | + | ^ Claim ^ Reality |
| - | |---|---| | + | |
| | " | | " | ||
| | " | | " | ||
| | " | | " | ||
| | " | | " | ||
| - | | " | + | | " |
| | " | | " | ||
| + | | "Most kids regret transition" | ||
| **When you examine the actual research carefully: | **When you examine the actual research carefully: | ||
| Line 191: | Line 264: | ||
| - The old " | - The old " | ||
| - Modern, rigorous research shows affirmation works | - Modern, rigorous research shows affirmation works | ||
| + | - Socially transitioned youth show comparable mental health to cisgender peers | ||
| The " | The " | ||
| Line 196: | Line 270: | ||
| - | ===== References ===== | + | ====== References ====== |
| + | |||
| + | [(des1> Temple Newhook, J., Pyne, J., Winters, K., Feder, S., Holmes, C., Tosh, J., Sinnott, M. L., Jamieson, A., & Pickett, S. (2018). A critical commentary on follow-up studies and " | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des2> McGuire, J. K., Kuvalanka, K. A., Catalpa, J. M., & Testa, R. J. (2016). A follow-up study of boys with gender identity disorder. Developmental Psychology, 52(3), 234–244. https:// | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des3> Glover, J. A., Gallagher, L. M., & Glover, M. (2023). Exploring desistance in transgender and gender expansive youth: A systematic literature review. Healthcare, 11(11), 1513. https:// | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des4> Ibid. .)] | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des5> Olson, K. R., Durwood, L., DeMeules, M., & McLaughlin, K. A. (2016). Mental health of transgender children who are supported in their identities. Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry, 55(12), 1120–1127. https:// | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des6> Littman, L., O' | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des7> Steensma, T. D., McGuire, J. K., Kreukels, B. P., Beekman, A. J., & Cohen-Kettenis, | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des8> Littman, L., O' | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des9> Ibid. .)] | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des10> McGuire, J. K., Kuvalanka, K. A., Catalpa, J. M., & Testa, R. J. (2016). A follow-up study of boys with gender identity disorder. Developmental Psychology, 52(3), 234–244. https:// | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des11> Ibid. .)] | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des12> Steensma, T. D., McGuire, J. K., Kreukels, B. P., Beekman, A. J., & Cohen-Kettenis, | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des13> Ibid. .)] | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des14> McGuire, J. K., Kuvalanka, K. A., Catalpa, J. M., & Testa, R. J. (2016). A follow-up study of boys with gender identity disorder. Developmental Psychology, 52(3), 234–244. https:// | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des15> Steensma, T. D., McGuire, J. K., Kreukels, B. P., Beekman, A. J., & Cohen-Kettenis, | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des16> Ibid. .)] | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des17> Olson, K. R., Durwood, L., & McLaughlin, K. A. (2018). Early findings from the TransYouth Project: Gender development in transgender children. Child Development Perspectives, | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des18> Olson, K. R., Durwood, L., Baams, L., Cassinat, J. E., Deutsch, M. B., & Pfaff, C. W. (2022). Gender identity 5 years after social transition. Pediatrics, 150(2), e2021056082. https:// | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des19> Ibid. .)] | ||
| + | |||
| + | [(des20> Carswell, J. M., Finlayson, C., Bartolucci, A. A., Chen, D., & Hanna, S. (2022). The evolution of adolescent gender-affirming care. Hormone Research in Paediatrics, | ||
| - | [[#cite-1|(1)]] Olson, K. R., Durwood, L., DeMeules, | + | [(des21> Glover, J. A., Gallagher, L. M., & Glover, M. (2023). Exploring desistance in transgender and gender expansive youth: |
| - | [[#cite-2|(2)]] Steensma, T. D., McGuire, J. K., Kreukels, B. P., Beekman, A. J., & Cohen-Kettenis, | + | [(des22> Ibid. .)] |
| - | [[#cite-3|(3)]] Temple Newhook, J., Pyne, J., Winters, K., Feder, S., Holmes, C., Tosh, J., ... & Sinnott, M. L. (2018). [[https:// | + | [(des23> Ibid. .)] |
| - | [[#cite-4|(4)]] Littman, L., O' | + | [(des24> Ibid. .)] |
| - | [[#cite-5|(5)]] McGuire, J. K., Kuvalanka, K. A., Catalpa, J. M., & Testa, R. J. (2016). | + | [(des25> Olson, K. R., Durwood, L., DeMeules, M., & McLaughlin, K. A. (2016). |
| - | [[#cite-6|(6)]] Steensma, T. D., McGuire, J. K., Kreukels, B. P., Beekman, A. J., & Cohen-Kettenis, | + | [(des26> Ibid. .)] |
| - | [[#cite-7|(7)]] Ibid. | + | [(des27> Durwood, L., McLaughlin, K. A., & Olson, K. R. (2017). Mental health and self-worth in socially transitioned transgender youth. Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry, 56(2), 116–123.e2. https:// |
| - | [[#cite-8|(8)]] McGuire, J. K., Kuvalanka, K. A., Catalpa, J. M., & Testa, R. J. (2016). [[https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33854450/|A follow-up study of boys with gender identity disorder]]. | + | [(des28> Olson, K. R., Durwood, L., Baams, L., Cassinat, J. E., Deutsch, |
| - | [[#cite-9|(9)]] Steensma, T. D., McGuire, J. K., Kreukels, B. P., Beekman, A. J., & Cohen-Kettenis, | + | [(des29> Ibid. .)] |
| - | [[#cite-10|(10)]] Ibid. | + | [(des30> Steensma, T. D., & Cohen-Kettenis, P. T. (2011). Desisting and persisting gender dysphoria after childhood. American Journal of Psychiatry, 168(12), 1214–1215. https:// |
| - | [[#cite-11|(11)]] Olson, K. R., Durwood, L., & McLaughlin, K. A. (2018). [[https://hudl.princeton.edu/document/16|Early findings from the TransYouth Project: Gender development in transgender children]]. | + | [(des31> Hembree, W. C., Cohen-Kettenis, |
| - | [[#cite-12|(12)]] Olson, K. R., Durwood, L., Baams, L., Cassinat, J. E., Deutsch, M. B., & Pfaff, C. W. (2022). | + | [(des32> Carswell, J. M., Finlayson, C., Bartolucci, A. A., Chen, D., & Hanna, S. (2022). |
| - | [#cite-13|(13)]] Glover, J. A., Gallagher, L. M., & Glover, M. (2023). [[https:// | + | [(des33> Ibid. .)] |
| - | [[#cite-14|(14)]] Carswell, J. M., Finlayson, C., Bartolucci, A. A., Chen, D., & Hanna, S. (2022). [[https:// | + | [(des34> Ibid. .)] |
| - | [[#cite-15|(15)]] Ibid. | + | [(des35> |
| - | [[#cite-16|(16)]] Ibid. | + | [(des36> Olson, K. R., Durwood, L., DeMeules, M., & McLaughlin, K. A. (2016). Mental health of transgender children who are supported in their identities. Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry, 55(12), 1120–1127. https:// |
| - | [[#cite-17|(17)]] Hembree, W. C., Cohen-Kettenis, P. T., Gooren, L., Hannema, S. E., Meyer, W. J., Murad, M. H., ... & T' | + | [(des37> American Psychological Association. (2024). Policy statement on affirming evidence-based inclusive care for transgender, gender diverse, and nonbinary individuals. https://www.apa.org/about/policy/transgender-nonbinary-inclusive-care.pdf |